This update presents the latest simulation results using the upgraded Integral Conversion Model. Compared with the earlier simulations published in 2.2, this set incorporates:
- Updated and cleaned input data
- Improved timestamp normalization
- Refined parameter calibration
- A clearer, direct comparison between the integral model and the original linear model
These updates allow a more accurate assessment of how the model responds under high activity and how it allocates RIVER output under identical participation patterns.
1. Conversion Rate Comparison (Updated)
(Blue = linear conversion rate, Red = integral model conversion rate)
Two key differences stand out compared to the earlier simulation.
1.1 Rate behavior under dense activity is more visible
The earlier run already showed rate compression when many conversions occurred in short intervals.
In the updated chart, this behavior appears more frequently and more clearly:
- The integral model rate (red) declines immediately when activity clusters.
- The linear model rate (blue) maintains its fixed slope and does not react.
This confirms that the upgraded formulation reflects participation density in real time.
1.2 Rate separation during pressure spikes is clearer
In the later part of the timeline (Day 30–50):
- The integral model shows sharper downward adjustments during concentrated activity.
- When activity slows, the rate returns toward baseline following the recovery formula.
This produces a clearer distinction between pressure periods and normal periods.
2. Cumulative RIVER Output (Updated)
(Blue = linear cumulative output, Red = integral model cumulative output)
The updated cumulative output chart shows two consistent observations:
2.1 Conversion during high-volume windows is lower
During dense conversion intervals (especially Day 30–50):
- The linear model accelerates upward rapidly.
- The integral model rises at a slower and steadier pace.
This indicates that the upgraded mechanism limits short-term issuance growth during clustered activity.
2.2 Output distribution is more uniform across the full period
Compared with the earlier simulation:
- The integral model curve is flatter, with fewer abrupt increases.
- The cumulative output follows a more consistent trajectory.
This reflects the system’s ability to maintain a controlled issuance pattern under identical inputs.
3. What the Updated Results Show
Across all updated simulations, the Integral Conversion Model demonstrates the following properties:
- High-density activity reduces the rate proportionally, discouraging simultaneous conversions.
- Lower-density intervals allow recovery, producing more balanced outcomes.
- Total RIVER conversions during high-pressure periods is lower than under the linear model.
- Distributed participation leads to better aggregate results than concentrated actions.
These outcomes align with the design goals of Conversion 2.0: a conversion environment that is predictable, adaptive, and shaped by collective behavior.
4. Next Steps
Based on the updated results, the team is finalizing:
- The complete parameter list
- Full documentation of the conversion execution flow
- The activation timeline for the upgraded mechanism
Further updates will be released once validation is complete