The Countermeasure 2.2: Simulation Overview

This update follows the previous announcement on the upgraded conversion structure.

With the framework now outlined, this section introduces more detail on how the mechanism operates in practice, including the underlying formula, variable interactions, and the initial simulation results conducted using reference parameters.

These parameters are illustrative examples only and do not represent final values. They are used to help the community understand how the upgraded mechanism behaves under different participation conditions.

✦ Simulation Overview

To evaluate the upgraded mechanism, we simulated the new formula using the exact timestamps and River Pts Pts inputs from the previous conversion mechnisim .

This allows a direct comparison between:

  • the actual conversion rates under the previous mechanism

  • the simulated rates generated by the upgraded model

  • the cumulative RIVER that would have been released under both systems

Two charts summarize the behavior of the new mechanism.

1. Conversion Rate Comparison

(Blue = original conversion rate, Red = new conversion rates)

The comparison indicates three consistent observations.

First, the new conversion rate (red) adjusts immediately during short, high-volume periods. When multiple large transactions take place within a short window, the new conversion rate (red) decreases in response to the increased participation density.

This shows that the upgraded formulation reflects real activity intensity and discourages concentrated extraction within a single timing cluster.

Second, when activity slows, the new conversion rate (red) gradually returns toward its baseline. The half-life recovery function operates as intended, compressing the rate during high-pressure intervals and allowing normalization during calmer periods.

Third, the original conversion rate (blue) remains linear and unchanged under the same conditions. This demonstrates the primary limitation of the previous mechanism: the original conversion rate (blue) does not respond to short-term increases in conversion density or activity spikes.

Interpretation:

Overall, the new conversion rate (red) more accurately reflects market activity and reduces the risk of short-term concentration pressure, while the original conversion rate (blue) remains static and unable to adjust under similar stress conditions.

2. Cumulative Conversion Comparison

(Blue = cumulative Pts converted, Green = original RIVER output, Red = simulated RIVER output under the new conversion mechanism)

The cumulative comparison is based on identical participation activity. The cumulative Pts converted (blue) remains the same under both the original mechanism and the new conversion mechanism, which isolates the effect of the mechanism design itself.

Across the observed period, the simulated RIVER output under the new conversion mechanism (red) is consistently lower and smoother than the original RIVER output (green).

Under identical participation conditions, the new conversion mechanism releases less RIVER during dense conversion intervals, reducing short-term issuance expansion driven by concentrated conversions.

The difference between the original RIVER output (green) and the simulated RIVER output under the new conversion mechanism (red) becomes most visible during high-volume phases.

These periods correspond to the same intervals in which the original mechanism exhibited difficulty managing conversion pressure. In contrast, the new conversion mechanism demonstrates stronger stability when activity intensifies.

Interpretation

The new conversion mechanism compresses excessive short-term $RIVER issuance and distributes output more evenly over time, lowering the concentration of circulating supply increases within short windows and improving overall system stability.

✦ What These Results Indicate

Across all simulations, the upgraded mechanism shows consistent behavior:

  • Short-term density triggers proportional rate adjustments: Concentrated conversions become less efficient, reducing incentives to rush into the same window.

  • Calm periods allow natural rate recovery : Users converting outside high-pressure intervals receive healthier outcomes.

  • Total RIVER output under stress conditions is significantly lower: This prevents sudden expansion of circulating supply and stabilizes system conditions.

  • Distributed participation yields better aggregate results than concentrated actions: The mechanism structurally favors fairer outcomes for the majority of users.

These behaviors align with the core objective of Conversion 2.0: a predictable, adaptive, and pressure-aware conversion environment shaped by collective behavior.

✦ Closing Note

Additional simulation sets, including multi-day runs, boundary-condition tests, and parameter sensitivity analyses, are ongoing. Following validation, the project will publish:

  • The final parameter list

  • Activation timeline

  • Comprehensive documentation

  • Extended simulation outputs for public review

All further updates will follow the same standards of clarity and transparency.

5 Likes

I still have a few points that need clarification:

1 — What is the final deadline for converting points to $River? (Under the old mechanism, it was 180 days from the TGE date.)

2 — The old conversion rate was 1 River point = 0.03 $River from day 180 onward. So how will the new mechanism work? If I hold my points beyond day 180, will I still be allowed to convert at the rate of 1 River point = 0.03 $River?

2 Likes

Yes please clarify on this about the conversion rate and timeline.

Thank you!

Thanks for the questions about the conversion timeline and rate.

A more complete update will be published later today. Please refer only to official announcements until then.

2 Likes

我有个问题想问,目前River的流动性池子中只有60万U左右的USDT,官方是否考虑增加流动性注入?

2 Likes

The final conversion rate should remain the same.
We have been holding under the premise that we would ultimately receive $River at a rate of 0.03.
Please keep this point in mind, as it is extremely important.